Uncertainty quantification and optimization for the scale-up of geological carbon storage (GCS)

Ongoing geological carbon storage projects in Canada – including Quest, Aquistore and Alberta Carbon Trunk Line – demonstrate that the Basal Cambrian is suitable for carbon storage. Expanding these projects provide is a viable way to achieve Canada’s carbon zero goal by 2050; however, the scale-up of geological carbon storage projects may be hindered by the uncertainty of injectivity, capacity, and confinement where limited geological information is available. 


In this project, we focus on the Aquistore project that provides more than 6 years injection and monitoring data to establish a data assimilation workflow and reduce the uncertainty in existing geological models. A future expansion and monitoring plan will be proposed based on the injectivity, sealing performance, and potential leakage to existing and re-activated faults. The proposed workflow for uncertainty quantification and optimization is anticipated to provide guidance on the new or expended geological carbon storage projects with geological uncertainty.